ISI - INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE
Newsletter Volume 28, No. 2 (83) 2004

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Published three times a year, the ISI Newsletter provides a broad overview of the Institute's activities, and also includes additional information of interest to statisticians. The Newsletter is sent to all members of the ISI and its five Sections (approx. 5,000) as part of their membership.

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Message from the President

The Biennial Session The 55th Session of the ISI will be held in Sydney from April 5-12, 2005, the latest in a long sequence of such events. These Biennial Sessions are extremely important to the ISI; indeed, they are central to our intellectual program, and have been since our inception. It may be worthwhile to review why this is so, particularly since in recent decades only a minority of the membership attends any particular Session and some members have never been to even one Session. In a sense, the ISI Sessions predate the ISI: The International Statistical Congresses began in 1853 as unique events, but they were met by participants with such acclaim that each followed with a plan for the next, albeit with no continuing administrative structure. The Congresses were created to bring the (primarily governmental) statisticians of the time together, and the enthusiasm of the participants at one Congress was both necessary and sufficient for the creation of the next one. This changed with the founding of the ISI in 1885, when a continuing administration was established, but even so in the early years of the Institute these meetings remained the sole occupation of the ISI; there was no serious organizational focus beyond the continuing Biennial Sessions. Before the 1930’s, the ISI’s sole serial publication, its Bulletin, was simply a report of the Sessions’ proceedings. We have grown considerably since 1885, in activities, in intellectual scope, and in membership, but the Biennial Session remains central to our life as an organization. It sets the pace of our planning and both the pace and in most cases the opportune location for our committee meetings. It is the one time we may gather together to share and discuss our work and hold our General Assembly. The ISI Council holds a meeting in each intervening year, and the Executive Committee holds additional meetings in intervening years and in advance of the Session in Session years, but the pace of all this activity is that of the Session.  The Sessions reaffirm our identity, and the wide range of world cities that serve as hosts makes tangible the truly international character of this, the only truly international society of statistics, broadly conceived. Participation at the Sessions has grown, from around 100 in the decade before 1900 (when about half the participants were ISI members), to around 500 in decades around 1950, to nearly 2000 in the most recent decade. What was once a fairly small affair has become a major international meeting bringing the broadest possible variety of statistical minds together in discussion and celebration of our science. Our meetings now require intricate coordination of program and space, and they take four years to plan. We have met in most of the great cities of the world, initially with a European focus, and with the passage of time a broader view. After we were organized in London in 1885, the next four Sessions were held in Rome, Paris, Vienna, and my own city of Chicago (then host to a great World Fair). The most recent five cities were Beijing, Istanbul, Helsinki, Seoul, and Berlin. We have met four times each in Paris and London (counting the 1885 organizational meeting); three times each in Rome, Tokyo, and Vienna. We have been 37 times in Europe, 9 times in Asia, 7 times in the Americas, twice in Africa, and once in Australia. After Sydney, we will be in Lisboa in 2007, and plans are already well underway to meet in South Africa in 2009.  We have not been immune from world events, and we have not always held to a biennial schedule. The September 1938 Session in Prague was cancelled during its second day as war threatened, and we only resumed meeting in 1947, with two Sessions that year, in Washington and in Bern.  The coming Session will be the second time that Sydney has served as host city. We were also there in 1967, but a different Sydney will greet the delegates in April 2005. Sydney’s public services and spaces were greatly enhanced for the spectacularly successful 2000 Olympic Games, and we shall reap the benefits of that investment. The Convention Centre at Sydney’s Darling Harbour equals the best that I have seen in the past 30 years of attending ISI Sessions. Sydney’s harbour and path breaking urban architecture, as well as its surrounding countryside (wonderful beaches and the Blue Mountains), will further enrich the experience.  Sydney Convention Centre - Darling Harbour Now is the time to begin to make your plans. This will be an exciting meeting in an exciting city. The program, under the direction of Stephan Morgenthaler, Graham Kalton, Leopold Simar, Frederick Ho, Chris Wild, Pedro Luis do Nascimento Silva, John Eccleston, and Geoff Lee, covers statistics with breadth and depth. In addition, there will be several IASS Short Courses. Visitors to Sydney will have the opportunity to also attend several convenient Satellite Meetings (in Sydney, Cairns, Wellington NZ, Auckland NZ, and New Caledonia), as well as to visit some of Australia’s other great cities and experience its vast natural beauty. You should have already received the Information Bulletin No. 1; the 2nd Information Bulletin will be sent this summer. The ISI web page will lead you to all this information, as well as to the registration materials when they are ready. When Professor von Neumann-Spallart of the University of Vienna proposed the formation of the ISI in London in 1885, he presented an extensive set of rules and bylaws. However in discussion, he gave a simpler description of the new society: It should have three basic characteristics, “It would have first an international character; secondly the character of association; and thirdly, the character of hospitality.” After 120 years, these terms still describe us very well. I hope to see you in Sydney, where the hospitality will be extraordinary, at what promises to be one of the best Sessions in our history!

Stephen M. Stigler President ISI

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Message from the Director 

IThe last three months have seen a great deal of activity taking place within the ISI family, with much more planned for the June-September period. When introducing those who are unfamiliar with our organisation with details regarding our objectives, activities and products, I am often asked to describe the various assets inherent to our organisation. One of the greatest strengths of the ISI family is the generous and persistent contributions of its members, united by our interest in statistics in all its facets. I never cease to be amazed at the dedication and determination of our members, particularly those who are supporting the ISI and its Sections through the various management bodies, committees and working groups, not forgetting those occupied with demanding conference organisation and publication involvements. There is no doubt in my mind that ‘the whole is much greater than the sum of its parts’, and the advantages of associating oneself within this gestalt are becoming apparent to an increasing number of statisticians worldwide. From left to right: Vice-President Pilar Martín-Guzmán, President-Elect Niels Keiding,  Vice-President Jae C. Lee, President Stephen Stigler, Vice-President Nicholas Fisher Speaking of active ISI bodies, the ISI Executive Committee met in New York City on March 4 to ‘plan the road ahead’. The ISI Executive Committee, Chaired by ISI President Professor Stephen Stigler, is continually working hard to advance our organisation on all fronts. The ISI Permanent Office welcomed Professor Stigler to the ISI Permanent Office in early April, for several days of ISI work, and the opportunity to meet with ISI Permanent Office staff.  ISI President Stephen Stigler visits with the ISI Permanent Office Staff   Mrs. Ank Lepping  Mrs. Margaret de Ruiter-Molloy  For those of you not familiar with the ISI Permanent Office and its staff, they are listed at https://www.isi-web.org/404?perm.htm. Members are always welcome to visit the ISI Permanent Office should their travels bring them within the vicinity of Voorburg in the Netherlands. Those of you who have been members for an extended period of time, or have attended several ISI Sessions, will no doubt be familiar with a particular member of the ISI Permanent Office staff, namely our friendly and conscientious ISI Office Manager, Mrs. Ank Lepping. I am pleased to announce that Mrs. Lepping will be celebrating her 30th year with the ISI Permanent Office in August of this year. I would like to also observe that our diligent Membership Officer, Mrs. Margaret de Ruiter-Molloy, who is responsible for maintaining the ISI’s membership database, has now been with us for 5 years. It is the responsibility of all ISI Permanent Office staff to serve you - the members. If you have any suggestions as to how we can do this better, please do not hesitate to contact us (incidentally, if you happen to be attending the ASA’s Joint Statistical Meetings in Toronto this August, please drop by the ISI booth to say hello).  You may have observed that the process of electing the future ISI President-Elect, Vice-Presidents and members of the ISI Council has now begun. All ISI members have been mailed a ballot upon which they can indicate their choices for the various ISI officers to  serve the 2005-2007 term and beyond. Please note that all completed ballots must be returned to the ISI Permanent Office, in the envelopes provided, no later than August 3, 2004. A listing of all candidates, and a statement indicating their expected contribution to the ISI if elected, is indicated in Volume 27, No. 3 (pages 12-15) of the ISI Newsletter and on the ISI website at https://www.isi-web.org/404?NLet033.htm#11ReportISINominationsCommittee  Don’t forget to vote! We are very grateful to have received the annual membership contributions from many of our members. For those members who have not yet had the opportunity to process their membership dues payments, please do so as it costs us a great deal to send out reminders. If you have not yet received an annual invoice for your 2004 membership dues, please contact ISI Accounts Officer, Mr. Peter von Vaupel Klein (@cbs.nl) and he will ensure that this is sent to you. Some annoying accounting software problems may have delayed the transmission of some invoices at the beginning of the year (for which we sincerely apologise); however all members should now be in the possession of an invoice.  In a continual effort to expand the services available to our members, we are pleased to announce two new electronic reference resources. Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts is now available on-line, free of charge to all ISI and Section members. For further details, please go here. In addition, as a response to an excellent proposal forwarded by the decommissioned ISI Ad Hoc Committee on Membership Expansion and Renewal, the ISI has established a new component to the ISI website that is restricted to ISI and Section members only, including proceedings of recent ISI Sessions and Conferences. To obtain information about the membership restricted area and other details, please go here. This issue’s ISI Honorary Members interview is with former ISI President Professor James Durbin, who has been a member of our organisation since 1955! In our ongoing profile of ISI Committees, we profile the activities of the ISI Sports Statistics Committee here (we thank ISI Sports Statistics Committee Chairman Professor Don Guthrie for this submission). This year marks the 350th anniversary of the correspondence between Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665), and ISI History of Statistics Chairman Dr. David Bellhouse chronicles these interactions here. Welcome to the Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre Having just returned from a brief visit to Sydney, I obtained a firsthand impression of the city and its environs. Sydney harbour is truly one of the spectacular harbours of the world, and the venue that will be used for the April 5-12, 2005 ISI Session, the Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre, is a ‘state of the art’ convention facility, ideally situated with a beautiful harbour view, and is within walking distance of the business district and hotels. The Session organisers have now mailed Bulletin #1 for the Sydney Session to all ISI and Section members (details can also be obtained from www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 ) and Bulletin #2 will be distributed in July. The various ISI and Section Programme Committees have developed an appealing Invited Paper Programme, and submissions to the Contributed Papers Programme are now welcome.    Entrance to 'Luna Park', location of the Australiana Night The social programme will provide participants with an opportunity to meet and to enjoy Australian hospitality while familiarising themselves with local culture and scenery. Several opportunities for funding are available to enable participation at the Sydney Session. A complete listing of funding details, including information about the Australian Agency for International Development fund can be obtained at www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005/sscheme.asp . The ISI will also be providing funding support to enable Sydney Session participation (qualification criteria and an application form are available), as will the United Nations Statistical Division (details and application forms can be obtained at https://www.isi-web.org/404?05session/UNSD.htm), and information regarding the ISI Tokyo Session Memorial Programme can be found here. The Sydney Session National Organising Committee, Chaired by Mr. Dennis Trewin, is working hard to ensure that this will be an unforgettable experience in all respects. Register your interest to attend the Session now (see details). Sydney Opera House The coming months will be a very busy time for ISI Section members. The Bernoulli Society will be holding its 6th joint meeting with the IMS, on July 26-31 in Barcelona. The IASC will host the 16th Compstat symposium on August 23-27, this time in Prague. Looking forward, the IAOS and IASS will be staging their joint conference entitled “Poverty, Social Exclusion and Development: A Statistical Perspective” in Amman, Jordan (November 29-December 1, 2004). This conference will be preceded by the ISI ‘Briefing Seminar for Chief Statisticians’ (details regarding the seminar are available here), scheduled for November 27-28, 2004. We are grateful to those of you who have submitted nomination forms on behalf of prospective ISI members. We are aiming at a minimum of 150 new members this year, and if you are aware of someone who deserves and is interested in ISI membership, please nominate them using the forms available at https://www.isi-web.org/404?membership.htm . As I mentioned at the beginning of this message, the advantages of associating oneself with the ISI are becoming apparent to an ever increasing number of statisticians; however, our elections procedure is dependent upon your taking the initiative to identify, inform and nominate these prospective members!

Daniel Berze Director ISI

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Register your interest NOW for the 2005 Session of the International Statistical Institute 5–12 April 2005 Sydney, Australia

Preliminary registration is now open for the 55^th Session of the International Statistical Institute (ISI), which will be held in Sydney, Australia, 5-12 April 2005.

The 2005 ISI Session will provide an opportunity for statisticians to attend scientific meetings focusing on their own speciality, and at the same time absorb new research in other statistical fields that may have novel applications to one’s own speciality. 

Have you received your copy of Information Bulletin I? Information Bulletin I provides the latest details on the arrangements for the 2005 ISI Session and the preliminary registration form. If you have not received your copy, please e-mail isi2005@tourhosts.com.au  and a copy will be sent to you. 

Venue

The 55^th Session will be held at the Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre, Darling Harbour. This large purpose built facility is set amid 50 hectares of parks, gardens, museums, shops and restaurants, all within five minutes of Sydney’s city centre.

Scientific Programme

A diverse and cutting edge Scientific Programme has been developed for the 2005 ISI Session and includes Invited Paper Meetings, Contributed Paper Meetings, Keynote speakers, Poster Sessions, Tutorials and Short Courses. Theme days will cover Statistics and Finance, Environmental Statistics and Genomic Data. All the details for the Scientific Programme, including the list of Invited and Contributed Paper Meetings, are listed on the 2005 ISI website at www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 . The website will be updated regularly as preparations progress. Did you know that you can also submit your papers on-line? See Information Bulletin I or the website www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005  for more details. 

Key Dates 

July 2004 – Information Bulletin II (with attached forms for final registration, accommodation bookings, social functions and tour reservations will be circulated to all pre-registered delegates.

Before 5 September 2004 – Preliminary Registration Forms to be returned to the Conference Manager. 

Before 6 December 2004 – Deadline for Authors of Invited and Contributed Papers to submit the final manuscripts.

Before 31 January 2005 – Early Registration fee cut off.

After 31 January 2005 – Late Registration fee applies.

* Included in registration fee
** Tentative

Satellite Meetings

A number of satellite meetings are proposed for before or after the 2005 ISI Session. 

Social Programme

The Social Programme will be a highlight of the 55^th Session of the ISI and has been designed to provide participants with an opportunity to relax, experience a taste of Australian culture and maximise networking opportunities. See Information Bulletin I or the Session website www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 for more details.

Tours

A range of mid-Session and Pre and Post Tours will be provided for delegates and accompanying persons. See the website www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 or Information Bulletin I for details.

Participants from Developing Countries

For those seeking financial assistance for airfare and living allowance, please visit the Session website www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 for further information and application details.

Letters of Invitation

On request, the Organising Committee for the 2005 ISI Session will provide an invitation letter to participate in the Session. Such an invitation letter is extended specifically to assist participants to obtain travel funds or appropriate visas and does not imply any commitment on the part of the organiser to provide financial support. For those who require an invitation letter, please e-mail isi2005@tourhosts.com.au.

Register your interest NOW!!

If you are interested in participating in the 2005 ISI Session, please complete the on-line registration form at www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 or return the Preliminary Registration Form in Bulletin I to the Conference Managers. This way you can be sure you will be kept up to date with Session developments. 

Contact Details

ISI 2005 Conference Managers
GPO Box 128
SYDNEY NSW 2001
Telephone: +61 02 9248 0800
Fax: +61 2 9248 0800
E-mail: isi2005@tourhosts.com.au 
Website: www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 

Tentative Time Schedule for ISI and Section Administrative Meetings (Sydney 2005)

Funding Opportunities for Sydney 2005 

ISI Tokyo Session Memorial Programme

This Programme was established after the 46^th ISI Session (1987) held in Tokyo to provide ISI Session participants of developing countries with financial support for travel and accommodation expenses. 

Open applications are now under consideration for the 9^th Round of the Programme in support of the upcoming 55^th ISI Biennial Session to be held in Sydney, Australia, in April 2005.

Financial support is available for active Session participants from developing countries in or under Upper Middle-Income Countries of the latest DAC (Development Assistance Committee, OECD) list of Aid Recipients, particularly the Least among Less-Developed Countries (LLDC). Authors of invited papers, invited paper organisers and the ISI Council members are especially encouraged to apply. Furthermore, in the case of LLDCs, applications from authors of contributed papers and contributed paper organisers will be also considered. The grantees from the Programme within the past five years and ISI Ex-officio members are ineligible. In principle, no more than one grant will be allotted to the same country.

The applicant is requested to submit an estimate of:

• Anticipated travelling costs, 
• Anticipated daily expenses (including accommodation, food, etc.),
• Duration of stay (days and nights).

The maximum monetary amount for a grant is 300,000 Japanese Yen (approximately US$ 2,700 at the rate of 109 Yen to the US Dollar as of March 1^st, 2004). Applications which demonstrate thrift (e.g., discounted air tickets, modest accommodation, etc.) will be favourably considered. Application forms must be received by the Institute of Statistical Research in Japan, no later than November 20^th, 2004. The screening panel will notify all applicants with their decision no later than January 21^st, 2005. 

Within two weeks of the closing date of the ISI Session, all grantees must submit documents issued either by the Secretariat of the Session, or by the Session Organiser to certify his/her participation in the said Session. Application forms can be obtained from:

ISI TOKYO SESSION MEMORIAL PROGRAMME
The Institute of Statistical Research
1-18-16 Shimbashi,
Minatoku, Tokyo, 105-0004 
Japan
E-mail: isr@isr.or.jp 

Sadanori Nagayama
Chairman
Steering Committee of the 
ISI Tokyo Session Memorial Programme
Institute of Statistical Research

NOTE: The Institute of Statistical Research is a non-profit, non-governmental organisation operating under the supervision of the Statistical Standards Department, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, the Government of Japan.

ISI Development Fund

One of the aims of the ISI is to promote the quality of statistics internationally. As developing countries are in the greatest need for such improvement, ISI considers it as its duty to provide assistance to statisticians from developing countries in achieving this improvement. For this purpose, the ISI Executive Committee established the ISI Development Fund. The ISI Development Fund 2003-2005 has the following characteristics: 

• From the ISI finances, €30,000 (about 37,000 US$) will be made available for the Fund for the Sydney ISI Session only. 
• Candidates from developing nations who live and work in those countries (see https://www.isi-web.org/404?devfundtxt.htm) can apply for financial support from the Fund for coverage of travel (ticket to be reimbursed or to be provided by ISI), accommodation, registration and out of pocket expenses at the Sydney Session. This is the only meeting for which applications can be made.
• Candidates should be at the beginning of their statistical career, which usually means that they are relatively young. Therefore, applicants must be under forty years of age. Women (re)-entering the statistical field are encouraged to apply as well. 
• Developing nations are defined as countries with a GDP per capita of US$4,000 per year, as specified in the World Statistics Pocketbook of the United Nations, edition 2002. 

For a list of countries from which the applicant must come to meet this requirement, see website: https://www.isi-web.org/404?devfundtxt.htm#List. No more than four applications can be granted per category (ISI-session) per country over a period of two years, so as to guarantee geographical spread of the recipients.

• Candidates should present a paper at the Session. They are to submit the abstract of their paper or their full paper, together with their application for support. Candidates presenting invited papers will be preferred over candidates presenting contributed papers. 
Female applicants will be preferred over male candidates, and younger applicants will be preferred over older applicants, first time applicants will be preferred over repeats, all other things being equal. Proposed papers of applicants will receive a quality assessment to determine priority. 
• Applications for the 55^th ISI Session in Sydney must be submitted no later than November 5, 2004. The decision about this application for support will reach the applicant no later than January 30, 2005. 
• Applications can only be granted to an individual once every two years. 
• Candidates from developing nations who did their work in a developed country are excluded from support from the ISI Development Fund. 
• Candidates are to submit a budget for their application, and should finance at least 10% of this budget from other means than the ISI Development Fund. They should use the form provided by ISI (see ISI websites below) 
• If not already an ISI or ISI Section member, applicants will be registered to an ISI Section of their selection. Section registration costs are to be incorporated into the application budget. 
• Applications submitted to the ISI Permanent Office will be judged on the basis of the criteria outlined above until the Fund has been depleted for the year in question. 
• Application forms can be obtained on request from: 
The ISI Permanent Office, P.O. Box 950, 2270 AZ Voorburg, The Netherlands, or 
via @cbs.nl
• The Permanent Office will decide on each application in a timely manner, assisted as the need arises by experts who will be approached for that purpose. Exceptions to the above guidelines will only be made under very exceptional circumstances. Decisions are final, and there is no procedure for appeal.

UNSD Fellowships

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Statistics Division (UNSD) will be providing a limited amount of funds to statisticians from developing and transitional countries wishing to attend the ISI Session in Sydney. Applications will only be considered from candidates who are taking an active role in the Session (presenting an invited or contributed paper) and/or participating in one or more of the Session Short Courses. Candidates from developing and transitional countries who live in those countries and work in the national statistical offices can apply for financial support from the UNSD funds for coverage of travel, accommodation, registration and out-of-pocket expenses at the ISI Sydney Session. Ideally, candidates should be at the beginning of their statistical career. We define countries with a GDP per capita of below US$4,000 per year as developing (using GDP data published in the World Statistics Pocketbook of the United Nations, edition 2002 - https://www.isi-web.org/404?devfundtxt.htm#List as source). We define transitional countries to be Mongolia and China, as well as all former East Block states including Russia, but not including Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic.

Applications are to be submitted to the ISI Permanent Office no later than November 5, 2004. Applications should be submitted using the prescribed form (see below), including the names and contact details of two references who are ISI or ISI Section members. Applications will be considered by UNSD experts, and their decision shall be final. Specific arrangements regarding the transfer of funds, travel arrangements, etc., will be handled between UNSD staff and the successful applicants. 

Application Forms: 
https://www.isi-web.org/404?05session/UNSDfellowships_form.doc  or
https://www.isi-web.org/404?05session/UNSDfellowships_form.pdf 

Enhanced Benefits for ISI and Section Members 

The ISI has recently introduced a few changes in order to enhance the amount of information available to ISI and Section members: Statistical Theory & Method Abstracts (STMA) On-line is now available for all ISI & ISI Section members free of charge. In order to obtain your personal URL providing access to this reference service, please send an e-mail to Mr. Sieriel Hoesenie (@cbs.nl) requesting access. After checking your membership status, you will be provided (via your e-mail address) with a personal URL that will provide you with direct access to STMA On-line for the course of 2004. Statistical Theory & Method Abstracts provides worldwide coverage of published articles on mathematical statistics and probability. These abstracts provide valuable information on new developments in all fields of probability theory, estimation, linear models, stochastic processes, operations research, testing of hypothesis, experimental design and time series analysis. Each year approximately 6,000 abstracts are published summarising articles from journals of all parts of the world. Additional details regarding STMA can be found at https://www.isi-web.org/404?stma.htm.

The ISI Permanent Office is working to expand the amount of information available on the ISI website. We have now developed an “ISI Proceedings” sub-site, containing the Proceedings of previous ISI meetings, most notably the ISI Session Proceedings (the Berlin, Seoul and Helsinki Proceedings are already included). This site will expand to include additional Proceedings volumes as they become available. All ISI/Section members are entitled to access this site on a complimentary basis. To facilitate the ease of access, rather than distributing individual access codes, all members can easily access this site, which is accessable by visiting the ISI Home Page , enter the “Log in” section and then simply enter the password (See Newsletter Volume 28, No. 2 (83) 2004, page 10).

If you would like to request the password, please contact Mrs. de Ruiter-Molloy (@cbs.nl). Please allow us some time to process your request.

We request that members refrain from distributing this code to non-members.

Become an ISI Elected Member!

Please visit the ISI website at https://www.isi-web.org/404?membership.htm for details and the candidate form. Please note that there are two rounds of elections every year. The deadline for applications for the first round of elections is June 15^th, 2004. The deadline for the second round of elections is November 8^th, 2004. Please submit your candidate form via the website or, alternatively, send it via e-mail as an attachment to @cbs.nl.

Surveying Women's Issues

ISI Invited Paper Session Sponsored by the ISI Committee on Women in Statistics

The ISI Committee on Women in Statistics is soliciting abstracts for Invited Paper Session 74 "Surveying Women's Issues" scheduled for the ISI Session in Sydney, Australia, in April 2005. We would like papers that address issues that designers and program developers have in developing and conducting surveys on issues specific to women, such as abortion, health, women's rights, finances, etc. We would like to select papers from statisticians in different parts of the world with a broad representation of issues. Please submit your abstract to Cynthia Clark, Chair of the Committee on Women in Statistics, at cclark@census.gov by July 15^th. Decision on selection will be made in July with notification in August, allowing time for paper preparation prior to the meeting. 

Cynthia Clark
Chair, ISI Committee on Women in Statistics

News of Members 

New Senior Management Appointments at Eurostat

Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities (situated in Luxembourg) has announced the appointment of the following individuals to the six Directorate divisions, under the authority of Eurostat Director General Mr. Michel Vanden Abeele:

Eurostat's responsibility is to provide the European Union with statistics at the European level that enable comparisons between countries and regions. Additional details about Eurostat can be obtained at http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat .

In Memoriam 

Dr. Petter Jakob Bjerve (1913 – 2004)

Petter Jakob Bjerve, Honorary Member of the ISI and the former Director General of Statistics Norway, passed away on 12th January, aged 90. With his passing, a towering figure of official statistics and the Norwegian society is gone. Bjerve was born in Stjřrdal, Norway, and was his parents’ thirteenth child. He determined his political allegiance and chose to study economics and statistics at a young age. As one of the leading students in the circle surrounding Ragnar Frisch, he worked on developing the national accounts in Norway. Shortly after the Second World War, Bjerve was asked to head an office in the Ministry of Finance, which was newly created to work on setting up a national budget. After studying at the University of Chicago from 1947-49, Bjerve was appointed Director General of Statistics Norway. Bjerve was Director General of Statistics Norway from 1949 until 1980. From the very beginning, he had a broad and long-term perspective of the development and use of official statistics. During his time as Director General, he established Statistics Norway as an absolutely essential information and premise supplier for policy and planning, and also for the general societal debate. The essential features of Statistics Norway, as we know it today, are for the most part a continuance of Bjerve’s initiatives as Director General. Bjerve developed Statistics Norway's research considerably, particularly with regard to the national accounts and economic models. He stressed the role of national accounts both as an important tool for economic policy and as a coordinating or cross cutting tool in official statistics. The research work at Statistics Norway played a key role in the economic planning after the War and in later decades for macroeconomic analyses and studies of living conditions.

Under Bjerve’s leadership, Statistics Norway was the vanguard in preparing the information society by introducing the personal identification number and company registration number systems, as well as establishing administrative registers and databases. These administrative registers nowadays play a very important role in the production of official statistics and in empirical research. By virtue of his natural authority and sharp intellect, Bjerve also had a strong influence on the development of official statistics as an international common domain. He was a very central participant in the UN Statistical Commission and at the Conference of European Statisticians. To quote Lord Claus Moser from his Keynote Address on the occasion of the Conference of European Statistician's 50^th plenary session in 2002: 

I want to mention particularly Petter-Jakob Bjerve. He was truly a great influence, technically superb and always wise, as important an influence as anyone. And what a career! For a while he was Head of Statistics in Norway, then he became Minister of Finance, then he went back to being the top statistician, which he preferred - rightly so! 

Bjerve became a member of the International Statistical Institute in 1955, and served as President from 1971-1974 and became one of a few Honorary Members. He was concerned about the link between official statistics and academics, and this was one of the topics discussed in his Presidential Address as President of the ISI. His suggestion was to close this gap by improving the methodological work in the national statistical offices. In addition, Bjerve was deeply disturbed about the imbalance in the growth of the world’s population. Population was stagnating in some parts of the world, while it was growing dramatically in other regions, primarily in developing regions. This made him a strong supporter of the World Fertility Survey Programme, which was initiated and planned by the ISI during his presidency. During the period 1972-1984, fertility surveys were carried out in a number of countries throughout the world. At the beginning of this period, Bjerve served as the Chairman of the Technical Steering Committee. Halfway through his directorship, Dr. Bjerve took leave from his post to take up the position of Minister of Finance from 1960-63. During his time in office as Minister of Finance, he defended his PhD thesis entitled “Planning in Norway 1947-56”. He also chaired a number of important public committees and had a series of engagements in developing countries in the role of expert. After Bjerve stepped down as Director General, he continued to be extremely active in publishing works in his fields of interest until he was more than 85 years old.

Everyone who had the pleasure of working with Petter Jakob Bjerve will remember him as a visionary leader with particularly extensive insight. He was never afraid to make decisions even when they could be tough. Bjerve was physically a big man with indomitable physical and mental energy. In collaboration situations, he was enthusiastic, insightful and generous. Bjerve was also a caring family man. Our thoughts also extend therefore to his family. A great builder of society and all-round outstanding man is gone. 

Svein Longva
Director General
Statistics Norway

Professor Emeritus Dr. József Kovacsics (1919-2003)

Professor of the “Eötvös Loránd” University Budapest, member of a great number of international scientific associations, Laureatus Academiae, owner of various decorations, Dr. József Kovacsics passed away on 26th December 2003. Early works in statistics Professor József Kovacsics was one of the most respected statisticians in Hungary and well known in the worldwide family of statisticians. He carried out outstanding activity in various fields of statistics and demography. His professional carrier started in the Hungarian Statistical Office with a pioneering work in establishing statistics of public administration and justice. In 1954, he was appointed Director of the Public Library of the Statistical Office, which soon became one of the reference libraries. In the framework of this activity, he initiated research works on historical statistics. Teaching He was a devoted teacher of statistics. His students were enthusiastic about his classes and his colleagues appreciated his teaching abilities. This activity started in 1952 at the Budapest University of Technology and continued in 1957 in Pécs as Head of Chair. In 1959, he returned to Budapest, as Head of Chair, from 1965 full professor of statistics in the Eötvös Loránd University, until his retirement in 1989. In 1996, he was elected Professor Emeritus.

In this capacity he published a considerable number of textbooks and teaching materials, e.g. three editions of “Course of Statistics”, “Urban and Rural Statistics”, “Statistics and organometrics of public administration”, “Introduction in the informatics of public administration”.

Scientific activity, research

Within the manifold activity outlined above, three fields constituted the focus of his research: statistics of public administration, historical demography, and informatics in law. He received PhD by a thesis “Political science and statistics in 1957 and Academic Doctorate by “Evaluation of the activity by local administration” in1972. He published more than 300 studies, out of which 36 books; in addition of publications in his native Hungarian, 50 were published in foreign languages. Special attention can be devoted to “Historical settlement register of the Hungarian Counties” in 19 volumes, and a number of in-depth studies on Hungarian Counties (Baranya, Veszprém).

Forty-eight reviews were published on his works. A considerable number of biographic publications devoted articles to his achievements, like “Dictionary of Demographic Biographies” and “Who’s Who in the World” (US), “Prominent Hungarians” (Canada), “Who’s Who” (Hungary) as well as the Great Hungarian Encyclopedia. His selected works on historical demography were published in “International Bibliography of Historical Demography” (Liege).

Membership in scientific Societies

Fortunately, the manifold knowledge of Professor Kovacsics was disseminated also by personal contacts in international societies and associations. He was member of ISI and SCORUS, the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, the Paris Statistical Association. In Hungary he was honorary life president of the Association of Information Technology in Law, funding chairman of the Working Group of Historical Demography of the Hungarian Academy of Science, etc.

Contact to ISI

From 1963 to 1995, he attended nine General Conferences of ISI where he increased the number of friends, admirers and followers. Let me conclude with the list of his papers put forward at various ISI meetings:

• The rectification of historico-demographical data by the aid of extrapolation and interpolation – ISI 1963,
• The measurement of the efficiency of the public administration – ISI 1965,
• The Modernization of Information System with an Organometrical Aspect – ISI 1971,
• Staatsverwaltung und Informatik – ISI 1973 (Vienna),
• La comparaison internationale de la criminalité – ISI 1975,
• A complex analysis of development of cities – IARUS 1988.

The last two works were prepared together with his wife, Professor Emeritus Dr. Katalin Nagy (Mrs. Kovacsics), as co-author and his successor as Head of Chair after Prof. Kovacsics’s retirement, as well as follower of his spiritual heritage. 

Professor Dr. György Szilágyi

 Historical Anniversaries: The Birth of Probability Theory

This year marks the 350^th anniversary of the correspondence between Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665) that led to the formal development of the probability calculus. The letters were exchanged between July and October of 1654. The subject of the letters were two gambling problems that Pascal called the problem of points for dice and the problem of points for sets of games. At least one of the problems, the problems of points for dice, had been suggested to Pascal by Antoine Gombaud (the chevalier de Méré) and purportedly solved by him. 

The correspondence, relating initially to the problem of points for dice, actually began in error on both sides. The initial question in an undated letter concerned a bet on seeing a six at least once in eight throws. How should the stakes be divided if the game is terminated after three throws without the six showing? Pascal thought that the fraction 125 / 1296 = ( 5 / 6 ) ³ ( 1 / 6 ) should go to the player making this bet, while Fermat thought that the fraction should be 1 / 6. With five tosses remaining, the correct probability of seeing a six at least once in five throws is 4651 / 7776 = 1 ( 5 / 6 ) ³. Soon after this initial correspondence, both Pascal and Fermat came to the correct solution for the dicing problem as well as the problem of points for sets of games, or what is now simply called the problem of points. In the latter problem, there are two players. They play some games until one of them has won a fixed number n of games. If play is terminated prematurely with one having won a games and the other b, how should the stakes be divided? The important concept was the expected winnings for each player, or dividing the stakes according to the probability of future outcomes. The problem of points remains a tricky combinatorial exercise for undergraduate students. Pascal found a short cut to the solution, commenting to Fermat that: Your method is very sound and is the one which first came to my mind in this research; but because the labour of the combination is excessive, I have found a short cut and indeed another method which is much quicker and neater…

His method used the arithmetic triangle. Pascal went on to solve the problem of points when there are three players. 

None of the correspondence or the results of Pascal and Fermat’s research were published in their lifetimes. Pascal did write a treatise on the arithmetic triangle, which included the problem of points as an application; it was published posthumously in 1665. The person responsible for making these new results in probability known was Christiaan Huygens (1629-1695), for whom my committee is named. He heard about the correspondence in 1655 during a visit to Paris. When he returned home to the Netherlands, Huygens worked out his own solutions to these problems. He published his book on probability De ratiociniis in ludo aleae in 1657. It remained a highly influential work well into the eighteenth century. 

David Bellhouse
Chairman
Christiaan Huygens Committee on the History of Statistics

ISI Honorary Member Interviews: Professor James Durbin

ISI Committee Matters

ISI Sports Statistics Committee

The Sports Statistics Committee functions as a forum for communication among statisticians interested in the statistics of sports. In contrast to other fields of application, many of these statisticians are not professionally active in sports applications. The range of statistical methods applied to sports data is very large. Further, sports provide a popular setting for the general descriptions of statistical methodology needed in teaching.

Most statistical studies of sports fall into three categories – analysis of outcomes, analysis of rules and strategies, and analysis of extent of participation. Due to their structure, certain sports are more data intensive than others. Baseball, still concentrated in the Americas and Japan but gradually gaining broader popularity throughout the world, is organized in such a way that precise data recording is nearly part of the game. Many Americans are obsessive about the aspect of the competition other than the final score; batting and earned-run averages are recited by younger and older fans alike, and more detailed measures of performance have been proposed over and over again throughout the history of the game. Indeed, there are online data bases with records of all games in the American major leagues for over 100 years. These data attract special interest since there have been very few changes in the rules of baseball during those 100 years. Baseball yields fertile ground for data analysis, method development and teaching of fundamental principles.

Other popular sports are less readily quantified. Football (soccer to Americans) is an exciting game of skill and strategy, yet attempts to quantify the progress of a game have been difficult to define. Many football situations have, however, been analyzed. For example, several authors have attempted to quantify the impact of disqualification with a red card. Basketball has yielded some thoughtful analyses of the progress of scoring; some have likened the scoring to the behavior of a Brownian process with drift. Tennis, hockey, cricket, and skiing have been analyzed by statistical methods.

Statistical analyses have given some guidance to rules makers. There have been analyses of novel equipment and alternate courses for golf, of the rating systems of skating and gymnastics, and of the breaking of records in athletics and swimming. Also, recent work has applied experimental design ideas to the seeding of chess tournaments. There is a general agreement among health professionals that physical activity can be helpful in maintaining health. Several years ago, Antonio Mussino and colleagues from the EU designed a complex survey to determine the extent of participation in activity among the population of the EU countries. In designing and executing this important study, they applied principles of measure definition, sample design, data processing and reporting. The consortium was faced with the problems of defining physical activity and its levels. They considered not only organized activities from neighborhood to level, but also activities done by individuals in leisure time. Finally, national profiles were developed and distributed to EU member nations. These methods and results will be presented in an invited paper session during the 2005 ISI Session in Sydney.

The public impact of statistical analysis of sports activity cannot be overlooked. Sports news and sports data appear in daily newspapers and on television. Sports announcers frequently comment on what appear to be unusual happenings, and statisticians must temper their reports with statistical reasoning. Indeed, one of our members has acted as a wagering consultant for Australian rules football. I, myself, had the opportunity to present some baseball analyses in a magazine with a circulation of over half a million – quite an achievement for a professional statistician.

Some national statistical organizations have similar committees or sections. The American Statistical Association and the Royal Statistical Society have regularly scheduled sessions at their meetings and have published sports-related works in their journals. Other professional societies have included statistical analyses in their literatures as well.

The role of the ISI through the Sports Statistics Committee is to act as an international coordinating group. Presentations at ISI Sessions sample from the world’s sports. The trans-cultural visibility of sports and competition promotes communication not only among statisticians, but also with the public. While our work is not necessarily the life-blood of statistics, it is certainly among the most publically visible activities of the profession.

Don Guthrie
Chairman
ISI Sports Statistics Committee

Call for Nominations C.R. and Bhargavi Rao Prize for Outstanding Research in Statistics
to be awarded by Penn State University Department of Statistics

The C.R. and Bhargavi Rao Prize is established to honor and recognize outstanding and influential innovations in the theory and practice of mathematical statistics, international leadership in directing statistical research, and pioneering contributions by a recognized leader in the field of statistics. The Rao Prize is awarded by the Department of Statistics at Penn State University to a nominee selected by the members of the Rao Prize Committee. The 2003 Prize was awarded to Bradley Efron, the Max H. Stein Professor at the Department of Statistics at Stanford University. 
Nominations for the 2005 Rao Prize should be submitted by December 1, 2004, to: 
Chair, Rao Prize Selection Committee
326 Thomas Building 
Penn State University 
University Park, PA 16802-2111
USA

The Rao Prize shall be awarded every two years (odd numbered years) to an individual working in the United States. The award recipient will receive a medal, cash prize and an invitation to visit Penn State and give a talk. Nominations should include a letter describing the nominee’s outstanding contributions to leadership and research in statistics, a current curriculum vitae, and two supporting letters.

Check your Personal Data (and Some Extra if Possible!)
The Continuing Story…
Correct information about our members is of vital importance to our functioning. Therefore, all participants of the 2003 Berlin Session were invited to visit the ISI booth and check their personal data in both the ISI Membership Directory and the Historical Membership List. Many people did so, and we are very grateful for their effort. We now repeat that request. We invite you to check your data as they were printed in both publications. All additions and corrections are welcome, also those referring to others! Please send any comments to the ISI Permanent Office, preferably by e-mail (@cbs.nl).

May we ask your special attention to e-mail addresses? Too many of them are still missing in our database. Apart from that, it is well known that nothing changes as frequently as e-mail addresses. E-mail has become an indispensable means of contact with our members, because of its speed and low costs. Help us to have these addresses as complete as possible.

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News from ISI sections Volume 28, No. 2 (83) 2004